NBA Presents 3 Anti-Tanking Proposals Including 18 and 22-Team Lottery Models

The NBA presented three radical anti-tanking proposals to its Board of Governors on Wednesday, including a 'five-by-five' method and an 18-team lottery format.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and league officials presented three comprehensive NBA anti-tanking proposals to the Board of Governors in New York on Wednesday. These radical departures from the current draft lottery system aim to include playoff-caliber teams in the selection process to disincentivize losing. The first concept features an 18-team lottery consisting of the bottom 10 teams that miss the play-in tournament and the eight teams that qualify for it. Under this specific format, the bottom 10 franchises would each receive an equal 8% chance of moving up, while the remaining 20% of the odds would be split among the eight play-in participants in descending order from 11th through 18th. All 18 spots would be determined via the lottery drawing.

A second proposal expands the lottery to 22 teams, incorporating the bottom 10 non-play-in teams, the eight play-in qualifiers, and the four playoff teams that suffer first-round exits. This model utilizes a weighting system based on records across two prior seasons, mirroring the current WNBA structure. To mitigate intentional losing, the league would establish a minimum win total floor for each individual season. For instance, if the floor were set at 20 wins, a team finishing with a 14-68 record would be treated as a 20-62 team for lottery purposes. Furthermore, a team winning 40 games one year and 20 the next would enter the lottery with a calculated average of 30 wins. In this 22-team scenario, only the top four picks would be drawn by lottery, maintaining the current standard for the highest selections.

The Five-by-Five Method and Protection Floors

The third concept, labeled the "five-by-five" method, returns to an 18-team field comprising the bottom 10 teams and the eight play-in participants. In this structure, the five teams with the worst records would hold identical odds for the top five picks. Following the selection of the top five, a secondary lottery drawing would occur for the remaining 13 teams. This model includes a safety net to prevent bad teams from falling too far down the board; if a team with one of the five worst records misses out on a top-five pick, the lowest possible position they could occupy after the second drawing is 10th. This addresses scenarios like last season, where the Utah Jazz (first-worst record), Washington Wizards (second-worst), and New Orleans Pelicans (fourth-worst) dropped to the fifth, sixth, and seventh spots, respectively.

May Vote and Unusual Meeting Schedule

Modifications to these three concepts are expected before a formal vote scheduled for May. The league office has designated a special Board of Governors meeting for this purpose, a highly unusual occurrence outside of the standard meeting windows in late March, July in Las Vegas, and the start of the season in September or October. NBA leadership began brainstorming these changes in December, though previous ideas such as freezing lottery odds at a specific date or limiting pick protections in trades were excluded from the current three proposals. Governors, presidents, and general managers will spend the coming weeks discussing the basketball and business implications of these models with their respective operations groups.

Adam Silver on Integrity and Rebuilds

During a news conference following Wednesday's meetings in Manhattan, Commissioner Adam Silver emphasized that the incentive structure for teams is clearly going to change for the next season. Silver noted that the league has faced significant criticism regarding teams chasing top spots in the 2026 NBA draft class, which is considered extremely deep. He stated that the decision must be made at the ownership level due to its impact on the integrity of the game. Silver admitted that distinguishing between a "genuine rebuild" and tanking has become nearly impossible, citing complexities involving coaches' lineup decisions, player availability, and medical staff evaluations of pain levels.

While the current Collective Bargaining Agreement with the National Basketball Players Association runs through the end of the decade, Silver suggested that future CBA discussions could lead to further adjustments. He characterized the current need for change as more extreme than the incremental modifications made by the league over the last four instances of lottery reform. The league's goal is to align incentives so that teams no longer find it beneficial to lose games for draft positioning, ensuring that the "rebuild with integrity" remains the standard for team construction.