2023 Ravens Top NFL DVOA Ratings for Best Teams to Miss the Super Bowl

The 2023 Baltimore Ravens recorded a 44.4% DVOA but lost the AFC Championship 17-10 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 2023 Baltimore Ravens finished with a 44.4% DVOA and a 13-4 record, yet their season ended in a 17-10 AFC Championship Game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. During that campaign, Baltimore ranked first in fewest points allowed and fourth in points scored. They secured dominant victories, including a 38-6 win over the 12-5 Detroit Lions and a two-touchdown Christmas Day triumph against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite beating the Houston Texans by 16 points in the regular season and 24 in the playoffs, a Zay Flowers goal-line fumble contributed to their final defeat.

Directly behind them, the 2024 Baltimore Ravens posted a 40.9% DVOA and a 12-5 record before falling 27-25 to the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. This 2024 squad led the league in offensive DVOA while navigating the fifth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses. They defeated the 13-4 Bills 35-10 and beat the Texans 31-2 on Christmas. In their season-ending loss, Baltimore outgained Buffalo 416-273 in total yards but committed three turnovers, including a dropped 2-point conversion by Mark Andrews with 1:33 remaining.

Historic Defensive and Offensive Leaders

The 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers earned a 44.3% estimated DVOA, the highest for any team prior to 1977. Known as the Steel Curtain, they recorded five shutouts in their final nine regular-season games, outscoring opponents 211-28 in that span. After a 40-14 divisional win over the Baltimore Colts, injuries to Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier hampered the offense. They lost the AFC Championship 24-7 to the Oakland Raiders, who scored a play-action touchdown from 13 personnel to end the first half.

In 2010, the New England Patriots achieved the most efficient offensive DVOA in history at 42.4%. Led by Tom Brady and rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the team averaged 32.4 points per game and finished 14-2. They scored at least 31 points in their final eight regular-season games, including a 45-3 win over the New York Jets. However, the Jets won the divisional rematch 28-21 after a botched fake punt by Patrick Chung and a Brady interception on the opening drive.

Divisional Round Upsets and Statistical Anomalies

The 1987 San Francisco 49ers posted a 36.5% DVOA, ranking first defensively and third offensively. Although their record was 13-2, they were 10-2 in games not involving replacement players. Their season ended in a 36-24 divisional loss to the Minnesota Vikings, where Anthony Carter set a then-playoff record with 227 receiving yards on 10 catches. Coach Bill Walsh replaced Joe Montana with Steve Young in the second quarter after the Vikings built a 20-3 halftime lead.

In 2022, the Buffalo Bills became the only team in DVOA history to finish in the top two for offense, defense, and special teams. They finished 13-3 and beat the Dolphins 34-31 in the wild-card round. Their season concluded with a 27-10 divisional loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, who jumped to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Similarly, the 2025 Los Angeles Rams held a 36.2% DVOA but lost the NFC Championship 31-27 to the Seattle Seahawks. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon broke up a fourth-down pass to Terrance Ferguson late in the game to seal the result.

Near Misses of the 60s, 70s, and 90s

The 1968 Dallas Cowboys averaged a league-best 30.8 points per game and featured All-Pros Bob Lilly and Chuck Howley. After a 59-13 opening win against Detroit, they lost 31-20 to the Cleveland Browns in the playoffs. Quarterback Don Meredith threw three interceptions on nine attempts before being benched for Craig Morton. The 1973 Los Angeles Rams also fell to a 10-4 Cowboys team 27-16 despite a 12-2 record. Three missed field goals by David Ray and an 83-yard Drew Pearson touchdown pass following a collision between defensive backs Dave Elmendorf and Steve Preece eliminated the Rams.

The 1998 Minnesota Vikings went 15-1 with the highest-scoring offense at the time, but DVOA ranked them second behind Denver due to a league-low strength of schedule. In the NFC Championship, Gary Anderson missed his first field goal of the year with 2:10 left. The Atlanta Falcons tied the game 27-27 on a 16-yard Chris Chandler pass to Terance Mathis and eventually won 30-27 on a 38-yard Morten Andersen kick in overtime.