2026 Fallen Stars: Cal Raleigh Hitting .172 as Top MLB Talent WAR Drops 39.9%

MLB stars from the 2025 season have seen a collective 39.9% decrease in WAR during 2026, headlined by Cal Raleigh’s .172 batting average.

Cal Raleigh is hitting .172 with 20 home runs through September 2026, a sharp contrast to his 60-homer campaign in 2025. The Seattle Mariners catcher has recorded 64 hits this season, which is one fewer than the 65 home runs he totaled last year. Collectively, the top 23 players from 2025 are on pace for 87.2 WAR in 2026, down from 145.1 WAR the previous season. This 39.9% decline represents the third-largest drop in value for a top-performing group since 1995, trailing only the 44.0% dip in 2011-12 and the 42.8% decrease in 2009-10.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds a .693 OPS and has failed to hit a single home run in Toronto all season. This follows a 2025 postseason where he hit .397 with eight home runs and 15 RBIs across 18 games. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) has plummeted from 4.6 to 0.9. Similarly, George Springer’s OPS fell from .959 to .743, while his WAR dropped from 4.8 to 0.8. These declines have left the Blue Jays averaging approximately 4.00 runs per game, ranking 29th in the majors, down from 4.93 runs and a fourth-place ranking in 2025.

Injury Impacts and Seattle’s Offensive Struggles

Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has not appeared in a game since May 31 due to a stress fracture in his right rib. Without Judge, the New York Yankees offense is on pace to score 114 fewer runs than last year and has ranked 25th in runs scored since June 1. Despite this, Yankees right fielders rank seventh in the majors in OPS during his absence. In Seattle, the Mariners have fallen to last in the league in scoring at 3.96 runs per game. Julio Rodriguez is on track for career lows in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. His defensive runs saved have shifted from plus-9 in 2025 to minus-4 in 2026, while his hard-hit rate dropped from the 95th percentile as a rookie to the 65th percentile this year.

Garrett Crochet, the 2025 AL Cy Young runner-up, has missed most of the season, posting a 6.30 ERA across only six starts before being sidelined. His WAR fell from 6.0 to -0.5. However, the Boston Red Sox recovered from a 29-43 record on June 18 to post the best record in the majors since that date. Sonny Gray has led their rotation with a 16-4 record and a 2.82 ERA, supported by rookies Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett, who both maintain ERAs under 3.50.

Pitching Volatility and National League Declines

Paul Skenes has seen his ERA rise to 4.97 since May 17, a significant jump from his 1.96 ERA through his first two seasons. His four-seam fastball velocity decreased from 98.2 mph to 96.9 mph, and he has allowed a .309 average with runners in scoring position. His overall WAR has dropped from 8.0 to 2.4. In Philadelphia, Trea Turner is hitting .239/.292/.376 after finishing fifth in NL MVP voting last year with a 5.4 WAR. Turner currently ranks in the fourth percentile in outs above average and is last among shortstops with minus-14 defensive runs saved. The Phillies trail the Atlanta Braves by four games in the division.

Performance Dips in Cleveland and New York

Jose Ramirez fractured his hamate bone on June 13 and has produced a .651 OPS since his return. His season WAR stands at 2.2, down from 5.9. The New York Mets have dealt with injuries to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, who have played 89 and 83 games respectively. Lindor is hitting .211 against fastballs and saw his WAR drop from 5.8 to 1.3. In Detroit, Tarik Skubal missed time from April 30 to June 12 following elbow surgery. The Tigers went 14-25 during his absence and eventually traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 1 when they were 6.5 games out of first place.