2026 Open Championship: McIlroy +850 Favorite as Royal Birkdale Renovation Debuts

The 2026 Open Championship begins Thursday at a renovated 7,223-yard Royal Birkdale with Rory McIlroy listed as a +850 favorite to win.

The 2026 Open Championship begins this Thursday at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, featuring a renovated course measuring 7,223 yards. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler enters as the betting favorite despite coming off his first missed cut in nearly four years. Betting expert Pamela Maldonado has identified Rory McIlroy at +850 odds as the primary pick to win the Claret Jug, noting his second-place ranking in strokes gained tee-to-green. The tournament features a betting line of 267.5 for the winning score, with the 'over' priced at -102, reflecting a par-70 layout where the 14th hole has been converted into a par 5 and the 15th serves as a long par 3.

Royal Birkdale’s firm and fast conditions prioritize placement over distance, as the redesign specifically reworked the closing stretch to demand strategic decision-making. Matt Fitzpatrick, listed at +166 to finish in the top 10, ranks second in the field for 'good drives.' Rory McIlroy’s history at this venue includes a T-4 finish during the 2017 Open Championship, and he has secured a top-7 finish or better in his last three Open appearances. Since 2016, McIlroy has placed inside the top 5 four times at this major. He recently recorded a T-7 finish at the Scottish Open, a performance achieved even while losing strokes on approach shots.

Expert Predictions and Player Statistics

Collin Morikawa enters the week ranked second in strokes gained approach, fifth in fairways hit, and seventh in greens in regulation. Morikawa, the 2021 champion, recently finished third at the Travelers Championship and currently ranks third on tour in birdie average. Meanwhile, Tyrrell Hatton seeks his first major victory following two top-seven finishes in the first three majors of 2026. Justin Rose returns to the site of his 1998 amateur debut, where he finished T-4, looking to rebound from consecutive years of losing leads at the Masters.

Scottie Scheffler’s betting props include a Round 1 score over 68.5 at +102 odds. Although Scheffler has not won since his first event of the season, he remains the favorite in the 'top past champion' betting category, which features 14 eligible players. For those seeking value in that market, McIlroy is priced at +235. The course setup includes four par 4s exceeding 450 yards and three par 3s measuring approximately 200 yards, conditions that favor McIlroy’s status as a premier long-iron player.

DFS Value and Long Shot Targets

Si Woo Kim is highlighted as a top DFS value at $6,900 and a +4300 long shot to win the 2026 Open Championship. Kim’s statistical profile includes ranking 20th on approach, 13th from tee-to-green, and 14th in accuracy. He finished T-9 at Royal Portrush in his last start and has gained strokes ballstriking in five consecutive events. Another fantasy option, Chris Gotterup, is priced at $8,500. Gotterup recently finished T-11 at the 2026 Scottish Open and previously won at The Renaissance Club. He currently ranks 11th in putting and is available at +126 for a top-20 finish.

Strategic Fades and Course Layout

Tommy Fleetwood is identified as a DFS fade at his $10,500 price point, despite being one of the field's best links players. While he is +160 for a top-10 finish, his betting value is impacted by a lower win frequency compared to other elite tiers. Alex Fitzpatrick, priced at $7,400, is also noted as a fade despite ranking second in the field in approach. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open and has shown volatility in his short game and putting metrics.

The renovated Royal Birkdale layout forces players to avoid fairway bunkers that sit exactly where aggressive tee shots land. With no rain in the forecast, the turf is expected to remain brown and fast, making trajectory control vital. Success this week depends on navigating the revamped bunkers and a closing stretch designed to test survival through accuracy rather than raw power.