2026 Rams Face +550 Super Bowl Odds After Acquiring Myles Garrett

Los Angeles holds a 12.5% implied probability to win Super Bowl LXI, sitting 5.1 percentage points ahead of the Bills and Ravens.

The 2026 Los Angeles Rams enter the upcoming season as prohibitive favorites with +550 odds at DraftKings to win Super Bowl LXI. General manager Les Snead executed a high-stakes trade sending Jared Verse and three draft picks to the Cleveland Browns for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. This move follows the acquisition of cornerback Trent McDuffie and the signing of Jaylen Watson to bolster the secondary. While the Rams hold a 12.5% implied probability of winning the title, history shows that the eight previous teams with a larger preseason gap over the rest of the league failed to secure a championship.

In 2025, NFL predictions proved highly inaccurate as 68 ESPN personalities failed to select the Seahawks or Patriots as conference champions. Preseason favorites including the Lions, Commanders, and Chiefs missed the playoffs entirely that year. Bill Barnwell’s own 2025 predictions, the Chiefs and Packers, combined for zero postseason victories. Looking toward the February 14 Super Bowl date, the Rams currently sit 5.1 percentage points ahead of the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in adjusted betting probabilities, despite the team also drafting Ty Simpson as a potential successor to quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Historical Failures of Heavy Patriots Favorites

The 2017 New England Patriots held a 19.8% implied probability and an 11.5% gap over the league but lost Super Bowl LII to the Philadelphia Eagles 41-33. In that defeat, Tom Brady threw for 505 yards and three touchdowns, setting a record for a losing effort. Despite Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks both surpassing 1,000 receiving yards during a 13-3 regular season, the 31st-ranked DVOA defense surrendered the lead to backup Nick Foles. Earlier in the playoffs, the Patriots trailed the Jaguars by 10 points in the fourth quarter of the AFC title game before two Danny Amendola touchdowns secured the win.

In 2007, the Patriots posted a 20.9% implied probability, the highest in this data set, following the additions of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte' Stallworth. After a 16-0 regular season where they won games by an average of nearly 20 points, New England lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants 17-14. The 2009 squad also fell short, losing 33-14 to the Ravens in the wild-card round after Ray Rice opened the game with an 83-yard touchdown run. The 2008 team, which lost Brady to an ACL tear in Week 1, won 11 games under Matt Cassel but became the only 11-win team in the 12-team playoff era to miss the postseason.

San Francisco 49ers and the 1990s Superteams

Between 1994 and 1996, the San Francisco 49ers were the preseason favorites for three consecutive years. The 1996 team had a 19.2% implied probability but lost 35-14 to the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round. During that game, Steve Young played with two broken ribs and lasted only two series after a Desmond Howard punt return touchdown opened the scoring. The 1995 49ers also lost to Green Bay in the divisional round, falling 27-17 despite entering the year as heavy favorites following a 23-point victory over the Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX.

The 1990 49ers attempted a "three-peat" with a 14.3% implied probability but lost the NFC Championship Game 15-13 to the New York Giants. The Giants won without scoring an offensive touchdown, relying on five Matt Bahr field goals and a Roger Craig fumble with three minutes remaining. Joe Montana was forced out of the game due to injuries inflicted by the Giants' defense. This followed a regular season where San Francisco started 10-0 and defeated the Giants 7-3 to secure home-field advantage.

St. Louis Rams and Green Bay Packers Upsets

The 2002 St. Louis Rams, known as the "Greatest Show on Turf," missed the playoffs entirely with a 7-9 record despite a 15.7% implied win probability. Kurt Warner threw 11 interceptions to just three touchdowns while limited to seven games by injury. All-Pros Aeneas Williams and Orlando Pace missed a combined 16 games, and the team finished with a minus-19 turnover margin. Marshall Faulk failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards and saw his yards-per-carry average drop by nearly a full yard from the previous season.

Green Bay entered 1997 with an 18% implied probability as Brett Favre won his third consecutive MVP award. The Packers reached Super Bowl XXXII as 11-point favorites but lost 31-24 to the Denver Broncos. Terrell Davis recorded 157 rushing yards and three touchdowns for Denver, while John Elway completed a "helicopter" run to secure his first title. The Packers had previously defeated the 49ers in the NFC Championship, holding Steve Young’s offense to zero touchdowns in a road victory at Candlestick Park.