2026 US Open: Alcaraz at +250 and Sabalenka’s 30-3 Record Lead Contenders

Carlos Alcaraz returns from a wrist injury as the +250 favorite for the 2026 US Open, while Aryna Sabalenka brings a 30-3 five-year tournament record to Queens.

Carlos Alcaraz enters the 2026 US Open as the betting favorite with +250 DraftKings odds, representing a 28.6% win probability, despite a wrist injury that sidelined him following a straight-set loss to Jannik Sinner in Monte Carlo this April. Sinner, who won his second consecutive Wimbledon title earlier this year, has withdrawn from the tournament due to a knee injury after a second-round collapse at the French Open. This absence ensures the 2026 season will conclude without a single Grand Slam match between the two rivals. On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka holds the top odds at +320 (23.8%) and boasts a 30-3 record at the US Open over the last five years. However, she has lost her last three matches against top-20 opponents and has gone 14-7 across her past seven events after starting the year 26-1.

Women's Field and Ranking Battles

Coco Gauff enters New York with +500 odds and a 16.7% win probability after a 9-1 run through Toronto and Cincinnati. Gauff defeated Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati final, winning 12 consecutive sets after dropping her opening frame of the tournament. Iga Swiatek, the +550 choice, has recorded 37 sets won by 6-0 or 6-1 margins over the past year, though she has also suffered 17 losses in that span. Swiatek recently went 10-1 with five top-20 wins, including a blowout victory over Elena Rybakina in the Toronto final. Rybakina, listed at +1100, faces a potential fourth-round meeting with Naomi Osaka (+1000) and a quarterfinal against Swiatek. Osaka reached the semifinals at last year's US Open and the semifinals in Washington this summer.

Jessica Pegula, who has won 79% of her matches in 2026, holds +1200 odds and could claim the No. 1 ranking alongside Gauff and Rybakina if Sabalenka falters. Alexandra Eala, the 21-year-old Filipino star, has risen from 75th to 18th in the WTA rankings this year, securing wins over Swiatek, Pegula, Rybakina, and Osaka. Madison Keys, a 2017 finalist now ranked 23rd, faces a difficult path through a quarter containing Belinda Bencic and Swiatek. Karolina Muchova, who recently won the US Open mixed doubles title with Jakub Mensik, has reached the quarterfinals in her last three appearances at this event.

Men's Contenders and American Hopes

Alexander Zverev is the No. 1 seed and the second favorite at +300 odds, having won 13 of his last 14 Grand Slam matches. Novak Djokovic, the +700 third favorite, has reached the semifinals in 14 of his last 16 Slams but enters with a 71% win rate in 2026, his lowest in two decades. Djokovic recently lost to world No. 50 Thiago Agustin Tirante in Cincinnati. Ben Shelton (+900) leads the American contingent after winning his second straight Montreal title without dropping a set, improving his 2026 hard-court win percentage to 76%. Taylor Fritz (+1200) follows with a 19-5 record in his last six events, while Arthur Fils (+1200) enters after winning his first 1000-level title in Cincinnati.

Injury Reports and Veteran Status

Absences define the 2026 draw, with Sinner, Serena Williams, Joao Fonseca (abdominal injury), and Jack Draper sidelined. Stan Wawrinka, the 41-year-old 2016 champion, received a late entry and will face Matteo Berrettini in the first round, a rematch of their four-set Wimbledon meeting that featured four tiebreakers. Venus Williams, age 46, enters the tournament having lost 14 consecutive tour matches, facing Sofia Kenin in the opening round. Other notable men's odds include Brandon Nakashima at +5000, who moved to 17th in the world after a 12-3 summer swing, and Rafael Jodar at +1200, who climbed from 540th to 13th in the rankings since August 2025. Frances Tiafoe (+4000) returns following surgery to remove a cyst from his right hand, having reached the Cincinnati final immediately after the procedure.