Bears and Broncos Lead Five NFL Teams Predicted to Decline in 2026

After the 2025 Chicago Bears posted a league-high plus-22 turnover margin, analyst Bill Barnwell projects a significant win total drop for the 11-6 squad.

The 2025 Chicago Bears finished 11-6 behind a league-low 11 turnovers and a plus-22 turnover margin, yet head coach Ben Johnson has labeled his team the top regression candidate for 2026. Chicago benefited from a 66.7% fumble recovery rate, the highest in the NFL, despite forcing only 17 fumbles, which sat near the league average of 16.8. Historical data shows that since 1990, 23 teams posted a fumble recovery rate of 65% or higher; none replicated that success the following year, averaging a 49.3% recovery clip instead. The Bears also secured a 7-4 record in games decided by seven points or fewer, a sharp pivot from their 3-7 mark in one-score contests during the 2024 season.

In Denver, the Broncos achieved a 14-3 record in 2025, buoyed by a 9-2 mark in one-score games and a plus-90 point differential. Sean Payton’s squad nearly reached the Super Bowl despite losing quarterback Bo Nix to injury for the AFC Championship Game, falling narrowly to Drake Maye and the Patriots with Jarrett Stidham under center. The Broncos return 31 of 33 players who saw at least 300 snaps last year and added Jaylen Waddle during the offseason. However, Barnwell notes that the 2026 schedule for Denver projects as the 15th easiest, while Chicago faces the 10th toughest slate in the league.

Chicago’s Statistical Anomalies and Roster Turnover

Chicago’s defensive secondary, led by Kevin Byard, recorded an interception on 4.3% of opposing passes, the highest rate in the NFL last season. Despite this, the defense ranked 27th in points allowed per drive on possessions that did not end in a takeaway. General manager Ryan Poles has since overhauled the unit, removing seven of the 13 most-used defenders from 2025, including Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Tremaine Edmunds, and Nahshon Wright. The pass rush remains a concern after ranking 29th in pressure rate last year, even with Montez Sweat recording 10 sacks.

Offensively, Caleb Williams displayed drastic splits, ranking 20th in Total QBR through three quarters before rising to third-best from the fourth quarter onward. In a Week 4 victory over the Raiders, Daniel Carlson missed a 54-yard field goal to preserve a 25-24 Bears lead. Against the Bengals, Williams threw a 58-yard touchdown to Colston Loveland to win 48-42 after Cincinnati took a late lead. The Bears also recovered an onside kick with 1:59 remaining against the Packers to force overtime, eventually winning on a 46-47 yard pass to DJ Moore.

Injury Concerns and Offensive Infrastructure

While the Bears were remarkably healthy in 2025, injuries are already impacting the 2026 outlook. Free safety Coby Bryant is sidelined for most of the season following left knee surgery, and Kyler Gordon is on the PUP list with a calf issue. On offense, wideout Luther Burden III is dealing with a groin injury, and running back Kyle Monangai is week-to-week with a knee ailment. The offensive line faces questions at left tackle as four candidates compete to replace the injured Ozzy Trapilo, while Garrett Bradbury replaces Drew Dalman at center.

Statistical history suggests a steep decline for teams with Chicago's profile. Of the 21 teams since 1990 that posted a turnover margin of plus-20 or better, 20 won fewer games the following season. Those teams saw their turnover margins drop by an average of 19 takeaways. The 2013 Patriots are the only team in that span to maintain their win total after such a high-turnover season.

League-Wide Trends and Previous Forecasts

Barnwell’s annual decline column has a 34-9 record since 2017 in picking teams that fall short of their previous season's win total. In 2025, the column correctly predicted four of five regressions, including the Minnesota Vikings' drop from 14-3 to 9-8. The Washington Commanders also fell from 12-5 to 5-12 as Jayden Daniels struggled with injuries. The Detroit Lions dropped from 15-2 to 9-8 due to offensive line issues and defensive injuries. Most notably, the Kansas City Chiefs fell to 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 after Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and the team went 1-9 in one-score games.