Insiders Predict $355 Million Average for Tarik Skubal Free Agency

A panel of 27 MLB insiders projected an average contract of eight years and $355 million for back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal enters free agency following two consecutive AL Cy Young awards and a 2026 elbow procedure to remove a loose particle. A poll of 27 MLB insiders by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel resulted in an average contract projection of eight years and $355 million, yielding a $44.6 million average annual value. While seven respondents predicted guarantees under $300 million, two insiders projected deals reaching $500 million over nine or 10 years.

Timing remains a critical factor as 78% of panelists expect a deal before the Dec. 1 CBA expiration and potential lockout. One specific projection suggested Skubal could seek a signing bonus worth 20% of the total guarantee, with half payable before Dec. 1 to hedge against a shortened season or pro-rated salaries. The pitcher’s camp, led by agent Scott Boras, is expected to target figures surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million total guarantee and Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million AAV record.

The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are viewed as the primary contenders for the 30-year-old starter. The New York Yankees are also cited as a potential suitor to join a rotation featuring Gerrit Cole and Max Fried. Among sleeper teams, the San Diego Padres emerged as a consensus pick, alongside the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox. Skubal’s career includes a 2016 Tommy John surgery and a 2022 flexor tendon procedure, yet his ERA+ over the last three seasons trails only Jacob deGrom among pitchers who secured nine-figure deals.