NBA 2026-27 Preview: Thunder Ranked First as Major Stars Change Teams

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the 2026-27 season with a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs and a projected 60.7 wins.

ESPN analysts rank the Oklahoma City Thunder as the top team entering the 2026-27 season with a projected 60.7 wins. Despite trading Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins, the roster features back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside All-NBA selections Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The Thunder led the league in defensive rating the previous two seasons, finishing 2.4 points ahead of second place in 2025-26. However, the team recorded a 49.0% rebounding rate last year, ranking 22nd overall.

The San Antonio Spurs hold the second spot in the rankings with a 99.9% playoff probability and 59.1 projected wins. Victor Wembanyama, who anchored a defense that produced a plus-17.0 net rating while he was on the floor, leads a roster bolstered by De'Aaron Fox and Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson. The backcourt is further strengthened by Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, the latter of whom averaged 16.7 points and 7.4 assists per game last season.

Significant roster shifts across the league include Giannis Antetokounmpo moving to Miami and Jaylen Brown joining the Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia’s new lineup features 41-year-old LeBron James, who averaged 20.9 points last season, and Tyrese Maxey, who ranked fifth in the league in scoring at 28.3 points per game. In the Western Conference, LaMelo Ball has joined Anthony Edwards in the Minnesota Timberwolves backcourt, while Ja Morant is now in Portland and Kawhi Leonard has returned to Toronto.

The defending champion New York Knicks are projected for 51.7 wins after setting a record plus-14.9 point differential during their title run. The team lost rim protector Mitchell Robinson to Boston but retains Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. New York’s offensive rating reached 120.4 points per 100 possessions during the 2025-26 postseason.