NBA Lottery Odds: Kings Hit 13-46 Record as Sabonis and LaVine Undergo Surgery

The Sacramento Kings hold a 13.8% chance at the No. 1 pick with a 13-46 record following season-ending surgeries for Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine.

Sacramento occupies the NBA cellar with a 13-46 record and a projected 18-64 finish, yielding a 13.8% probability of securing the first overall selection. The Kings recently halted a franchise-record 16-game slide by topping Memphis, yet they struggle with a 4-26 road mark. Roster stability vanished this week as Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and De'Andre Hunter all underwent season-ending surgeries. These medical crises force a pivot toward youth while the front office grapples with a luxury tax bill inflated by the Hunter acquisition. Financial relief hinges on DeMar DeRozan, whose $25.7 million salary for next year carries only a $10 million guarantee, providing a mechanism to dodge the second apron.

Washington trails closely at 16-40, holding a 13.6% shot at the top draft spot. A projected 21-61 campaign follows the blockbuster acquisitions of Trae Young and Anthony Davis, both of whom are currently unavailable. Young has been out since Dec. 27 with an MCL sprain and thigh bruise, while Davis remains sidelined by Jan. 8 ligament damage in his left hand. The Wizards face massive future obligations, including Young’s $49 million player option and Davis’s eligibility for a four-year extension on Aug. 6. Bilal Coulibaly also remains eligible for a rookie-scale extension through the final day of the regular season.

Brooklyn and Indiana Roster Shifts

The 15-41 Nets possess a 13% chance at the premier pick and an estimated 22-60 final record. General manager Sean Marks offloaded Cam Thomas to clarify the depth chart while retaining five 2025 first-round assets. Brooklyn operates with the league's lowest payroll and could generate $50 million in spending power this offseason. This liquidity allows them to target restricted free agent Peyton Watson or leverage 28 total future draft picks in trades. As rookies Egor Demin and Nolan Traore see increased run, the organization must also weigh a four-year extension for Michael Porter Jr. and his $40.8 million expiring deal.

Indiana sits at 15-43 with a 12% probability of winning the lottery after injuries derailed their post-Finals momentum. The Pacers landed Ivica Zubac from the Clippers, but an ankle injury has prevented his debut. To acquire the center, Indiana surrendered a 2026 first-round pick that carries top-four protection. If their current slot holds through the May 10 lottery, they keep the pick; otherwise, the asset conveys based on final standings. The team remains $2.8 million under the luxury tax, with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam among eight players eligible for summer extensions.

Utah and Atlanta Trade Implications

Utah pivoted from its rebuild by sending three first-rounders to Memphis for Jaren Jackson Jr., leaving the Jazz with an 11.3% chance at the No. 1 pick. Projected to finish 25-57, the franchise has committed 68% of next year’s cap to Jackson and Lauri Markkanen. Walker Kessler entered the season without an extension and will become a restricted free agent this summer. Keyonte George, a Most Improved Player candidate, has until the regular-season finale to ink a new deal as the front office evaluates him against a guard-heavy lottery class.

Atlanta owns a 13.3% chance at the top selection via a swap involving the better of the Milwaukee or New Orleans picks. Following the Trae Young trade, the Hawks swapped Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard for Jock Landale, Buddy Hield, and Jonathan Kuminga. The Hawks can create $30 million in room by declining Kuminga’s $24.3 million team option. Even if retained, the team holds a $15 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to bolster the frontcourt. At 28-31, Atlanta is attempting to advance beyond the Eastern Conference play-in for the first time in two years.

Rebuilding in Dallas, Chicago, and Memphis

Dallas holds a 20-36 record and a 6.8% lottery probability after shedding $12 million in future salary by moving Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, and Jaden Hardy. The Mavericks are centering their rebuild on rookie Cooper Flagg and evaluating Kyrie Irving’s fit during the remaining two years of his $81 million contract. Max Christie is currently eligible for a four-year, $92.8 million extension. In Chicago, the Bulls have collapsed to 24-34, losing nine straight games in February. The Bulls could boast $60 million in summer space and must allocate at least $44 million to meet the mandatory salary floor.

Memphis has liquidated its veteran core, trading Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. within the last year. Ja Morant is the lone remaining star but is out with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, with an evaluation set for late March. Morant earns $42.2 million next season, while the Grizzlies have stockpiled seven future first-round picks to complement youngsters Cedric Coward and Zach Edey. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out for the year following pinkie surgery and holds a $21.6 million player option for 2026-27. The 21-35 Grizzlies currently maintain a 5.5% chance at the first pick.