NFL Win Rates 2.0: Micah Parsons Faces 54% Double-Team Rate in Metric Update

ESPN's 2026 NFL win rates update reveals Micah Parsons leads the league with a 54% chip and double-team rate, while Nick Herbig's win rate fell to 14.3%.

ESPN Analytics has overhauled its NFL win rates for the 2026 season, implementing a new formula that adjusts pass rush and pass block success metrics. Under the refined system, Micah Parsons of the Green Bay Packers leads the league by commanding a 54.0% chip or double-team rate on pass rushes. Conversely, Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher Nick Herbig saw his pass rush win rate (PRWR) plummet from a league-leading 26.3% in 2025 to 14.3% in the updated 2.0 version. This 12-percentage-point drop represents the largest decline for any edge rusher, moving Herbig to the 14th rank at his position.

The updated metrics now account for bull rush wins, where a defender disrupts the pocket without necessarily passing the blocker's tracking chips. Leonard Williams of the Seattle Seahawks led the NFL with 18 bull rush wins last season, followed by Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons with 16. These power-based wins are statistically significant, as the sack probability on a play featuring a bull rush win increases by eight percentage points. Offenses also see their production dip from 6.3 yards per attempt to 5.0 yards when a bull rush win occurs.

Reliability and Correlation Improvements

The revised formula has increased the year-over-year reliability correlation for individual players from 0.53 to 0.59. This exceeds the typical 0.4 to 0.5 reliability range found in MLB batting averages. Furthermore, the new win rate version accounts for 34% of a play’s outcome regarding Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, an increase from the 24% correlation seen in the legacy version. The baseline for a win remains set at 2.5 seconds after the snap, treating the line of scrimmage as a weak-link survival system where a single loss by any blocker triggers a unit-level failure.

Beyond bull rushes, the 2026 update eliminates false positives previously caused by outside speed rushes that did not threaten the pocket. Denver Broncos edge Nik Bonitto dropped from third (23.5%) to 10th (15.4%) in the new rankings due to these refinements. In contrast, Joey Bosa, Aidan Hutchinson, and Odafe Oweh all moved into the top five for edge rushers. Bosa, at age 31, benefited from the metric's improved proximity requirements, which converted several of his former losses into wins.

Pressure and Protection Trends

Defensive attention remains concentrated on elite rushers, with T.J. Watt leading the league by being chipped on 24.2% of his pass rushes. Despite this, Watt's 10.1% PRWR ranked 33rd among edge rushers. Myles Garrett finished second in chip frequency at 21.9% and second in combined chip/double-team rate at 46.1%. Other high-volume targets for chips include Alex Wright (21.4%), Will Anderson Jr. (20.9%), and Rashan Gary (20.2%).

On the offensive line, the Los Angeles Rams utilized twists or stunts on 47% of opponent pass plays, the highest rate in the NFL. However, their sack rate dropped from 8.6% to 5.8% when using these maneuvers. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who ranked second in stunt frequency, saw their sack rate double from 3.3% to 6.3% when employing twists. For blockers, Taylor Moton, Dion Dawkins, Jordan Mailata, Tristan Wirfs, and Jermaine Eluemunor received the least amount of chip help last season. Conversely, Justin Skule, Charlie Heck, Ozzy Trapilo, Vederian Lowe, and Olisaemeka Udoh received help at the highest rates. Among that group, only Trapilo maintained a pass block win rate of 90% or higher.

Positional Shifts and New Classifications

Alim McNeill of the Detroit Lions recorded the highest bull rush win rate among players with at least 200 pass rushes. The new system also identifies specific tackle help, tracking which blockers receive the most assistance and which rushers are most frequently neutralized by chip blocks. While defensive stunts and simulated pressures are now classified, they are reported alongside the core metrics rather than adjusted within the win rate itself. Seattle's Abraham Lucas and the Chargers' Trey Pipkins III saw their rankings improve under the new formula, while Darnell Wright and Spencer Brown experienced substantial drops in their pass block win rate standings.