Pete Crow-Armstrong Overtakes Shohei Ohtani in NL MVP Race With 163.3 AXE Rating

Pete Crow-Armstrong has surpassed Shohei Ohtani as the National League MVP front-runner following a head-to-head duel at Wrigley Field on August 5.

Pete Crow-Armstrong currently leads the National League MVP race with a 163.3 AXE rating, surpassing Shohei Ohtani who sits at 154.7. The leaderboard transition occurred in betting markets on August 5 during a head-to-head matchup at Wrigley Field, though the AXE system reflected the change as early as July 21. Crow-Armstrong leads all of baseball in defensive metrics while matching Ohtani’s offensive pace and exceeding him in baserunning categories. Ohtani, who has been limited to a designated hitter role for over seven weeks due to an injury preventing him from pitching, previously dominated the race as a two-way player.

In the American League, Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros holds the top MVP spot with a 148.1 AXE rating. Alvarez has maintained this lead since July 11 and currently leads the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Despite hitting only one home run in August, he remains on a Triple Crown trajectory. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals follows in second place with a 143.0 AXE rating. Witt recently returned from a knee injury to outhit Alvarez in August, providing platinum glove-level defense and elite impact on the basepaths.

AL and NL Cy Young Statistical Leaders

Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees leads the American League Cy Young race with a 145.3 AXE rating, holding a narrow edge over Dylan Cease of the Toronto Blue Jays at 145.1. Schlittler maintains a 1.14 ERA across 15 road starts this season, contrasted against a 3.71 ERA in 12 starts at Yankee Stadium. Cease has been the second-hottest pitcher in the league recently, trailing only Gerrit Cole in AXE improvement. The two pitchers are currently tied in both leading versions of WAR. Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians ranks third in the AL with a 137.8 AXE rating.

Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies leads the National League Cy Young race with a 154.1 AXE rating. Sanchez has won seven of his last eight starts, posting a 2.18 ERA during that span, and remains the only NL pitcher with a chance to reach 20 wins this season. Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers follows in second with a 150.5 AXE rating. Misiorowski leads the league with a 1.68 ERA, a 39% strikeout rate, and a 67% quality start rate. His average game score of 68.2 is five points higher than second-place Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Rookie of the Year Standings and Metrics

Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers is the American League Rookie of the Year front-runner with a 134.4 AXE rating. McGonigle has performed significantly better as a leadoff hitter, posting a .311 average compared to a .243 mark when slotted elsewhere in the lineup. Guardians pitcher Parker Messick ranks second among AL rookies at 130.7. Messick has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every start since the beginning of July, resulting in a 1.88 ERA over that eight-start stretch. Munetaka Murakami of the White Sox trails with 40 home runs in sight and nearly 100 walks.

JJ Wetherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals leads the National League Rookie of the Year race with a 131.7 AXE rating, a position he has held since May 1. While Wetherholt has struggled at the plate with a .207/.323/.321 slash line since the All-Star break, his rating is supported by platinum glove-level defense at second base. Carson Benge of the New York Mets is the top contender with a 116.3 AXE rating, having hit .319/.369/.504 since the All-Star break. Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds leads all NL rookies with 98 RBIs.

Additional MVP and Cy Young Contenders

Behind Alvarez and Witt in the AL MVP race, Kevin McGonigle ranks third (134.4), followed by Willson Contreras of the Red Sox (129.5) and Ceddanne Rafaela (129.0). Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays sits in ninth place with a 126.8 AXE rating, despite high betting market interest. Caminero's RBI versus expectation total ranks 454th in the majors, and he has recorded five fewer net RBIs than Contreras despite having 48 more opportunities.

In the National League MVP hunt, Brice Turang of the Milwaukee Brewers holds the third spot (133.2), followed by JJ Wetherholt (131.7) and Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks (131.5). The pitching leaderboards show Jesus Luzardo (140.7) and Zack Wheeler (134.0) giving the Phillies three of the top seven spots in the NL Cy Young race. Will Venable of the White Sox leads the American League Manager of the Year race with a 113.9 EARL rating, followed by Kevin Cash of the Rays at 111.9.