Scheffler and McIlroy Top Favorites for 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the field for the 154th Open Championship as Royal Birkdale hosts for the 11th time.

The 154th Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale Golf Club, where World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and 2014 victor Rory McIlroy headline the betting market. Scheffler seeks to replicate Padraig Harrington’s 2008-09 feat of consecutive Claret Jugs, rebounding from a missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open. McIlroy, a two-time Masters winner, returns to the site of his 2017 tie for fourth place. That year, Jordan Spieth triumphed by three strokes over Matt Kuchar, overcoming an unplayable lie on the 13th hole driving range to play the following four holes in 5 under par.

Significant Course Changes at Royal Birkdale

Hosting its 11th Open, the venue features a par-3 fourth hole extended by 20 yards to a total of 219. The fifth hole has been reduced by 25 yards into a drivable par 4, while the 14th hole transitioned from a par 3 to a 602-yard par 5. Conversely, the 15th hole shifted from a par 5 to a 241-yard par 3. These modifications test a domestic contingent including Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood, aiming to become the first English winner since Nick Faldo in 1992.

Statistical Leaders and Recent Winners

Matt Fitzpatrick leads the tour in strokes gained: around the green (.592) and holds the second-best approach average at .766. U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark arrives with two victories in 60 days, including the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and sits ninth in around-the-green metrics (.401). Chris Gotterup, a three-time winner in 2026 following his John Deere Classic success, finds the fairway on 54.4% of attempts. World No. 3 Cameron Young pursues his maiden major after top-eight finishes at both St. Andrews and Royal Liverpool.

Local Favorites and Major Champions

Southport’s Tommy Fleetwood, the current FedEx Cup holder, ranks third in total strokes gained at .377. Ludvig Åberg enters with six top-10s across 15 starts this season, while Xander Schauffele brings a record of 19 top-10 finishes in 37 major appearances. Collin Morikawa, the 2021 champion, tops the tour in approach (.842) and finds 69.4% of fairways off the tee. Tyrrell Hatton joins the field following a LIV Golf win in Spain and a top-10 result at Shinnecock Hills.

Strategic Accuracy and Veteran Presence

Russell Henley maintains the highest percentage of fairways hit at 73.4%, followed closely by Aaron Rai at 72.4%. Rai, the reigning PGA Champion, resides within 95 miles of the links. Justin Rose, 45, revisits the grounds where he placed fourth as a 17-year-old amateur in 1998. Viktor Hovland, who recently bested Scheffler in a Travelers Championship playoff for his eighth career title, looks to surpass his 2022 fourth-place finish. Jon Rahm targets a fourth top-10 major result in seven tries, while Harris English enters the week ranked sixth in putting efficiency (.581).