UFC 324 Expert Picks: Why Justin Gaethje is Paddy Pimblett’s Toughest Test

Get the latest UFC 324 picks as MMA legends weigh in on the massive lightweight clash between Justin Gaethje and Paddy 'The Baddy' Pimblett.

The Octagon returns with a vengeance to kick off 2026, and the MMA world is buzzing with anticipation over the massive lightweight showdown at the top of the card. As fans prepare for the first major event of the year, our comprehensive UFC 324 picks offer a deep dive into the stylistic collision between Justin 'The Highlight' Gaethje and Paddy 'The Baddy' Pimblett. This isn't just a fight for ranking positioning; it is a clash of eras and mentalities that has split the MMA community right down the middle.

Justin Gaethje, the former interim champion and BMF titleholder, remains one of the most feared strikers in the history of the 155-pound division. On the other side, Paddy Pimblett has transitioned from a polarizing prospect into a legitimate top-tier contender. However, as we look at the expert consensus, many believe that Pimblett may have bitten off more than he can chew for his first main event of the new year. Our panel of four former UFC veterans has weighed in, and the results suggest a long night ahead for the Liverpool native.

The Stylistic Nightmare for Paddy Pimblett

When analyzing UFC 324 picks, the primary concern for Pimblett supporters is the defensive liability 'The Baddy' often displays in the pocket. While Paddy has shown a much-improved chin and a high-level grappling game, Justin Gaethje is a master of punishing technical flaws. Gaethje’s leg kicks are legendary, often debilitating his opponents before the third round even begins. For a fighter like Pimblett, who relies on lateral movement and explosive entries, losing the mobility in his lead leg could be a death sentence.

One former UFC middleweight champion on our panel noted that Gaethje’s takedown defense—honed during his days as an All-American wrestler—is the ultimate equalizer. If Pimblett cannot take Gaethje to the mat, he is forced into a kickboxing match with a man who thrives in the chaos of a 'phone booth' fight. The consensus among experts is that Gaethje’s ability to force a high-paced, violent standing trade-off makes these UFC 324 picks lean heavily toward the veteran.

Expert Breakdown: Four Fighters Make Their Call

To get a clearer picture of how this main event unfolds, we spoke to four former Octagon warriors. Interestingly, three out of the four experts chose Gaethje to win by TKO. The reasoning was consistent: Gaethje’s experience in five-round wars gives him a distinct cardiovascular and psychological edge. One former lightweight contender noted, 'Paddy hasn't been in the deep waters with a shark like Justin. Gaethje doesn't just beat you; he tries to take a piece of your soul with every punch.'

However, the lone dissenter in our UFC 324 picks panel believes Pimblett's unorthodox timing could be the key. 'Paddy has that weird rhythm that's hard to replicate in camp,' the former fighter explained. 'If he can weather the initial storm and catch Justin in a scramble, his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is world-class. People forget how dangerous Paddy is on the ground because they’re so focused on his personality.' Despite this, the betting lines and the majority of our experts remain skeptical of the underdog’s chances.

The Championship Implications of UFC 324

This bout serves as a de facto title eliminator for the lightweight division. With the champion looking for his next challenger in the summer of 2026, the winner of this fight will be in the driver's seat. For Gaethje, a win proves that the old guard still holds the keys to the kingdom. For Pimblett, a victory would be the ultimate 'I told you so' to his legions of critics. This high-stakes environment is exactly why the UFC 324 picks are so heavily scrutinized by fans and gamblers alike.

Gaethje has been here before. He has headlined some of the biggest cards in UFC history and has never folded under the pressure. Pimblett, while accustomed to the spotlight, is facing a level of power he has never encountered inside the cage. The question remains: can the Scouser’s chin hold up against the most violent man in the sport? Most experts think not, citing Gaethje’s precision and Paddy’s tendency to keep his chin in the air during exchanges.

Final Prediction and Betting Outlook

As we finalize our UFC 324 picks, the smart money appears to be on the veteran. While Paddy Pimblett has the charisma and the grappling chops to make it interesting, the technical striking gap is simply too wide to ignore. We expect Gaethje to target the lead leg early, slowing Pimblett’s movement and setting up the trademark overhand right or left hook.

Our final consensus pick is Justin Gaethje via TKO in Round 3. The durability of Pimblett will likely keep him in the fight through the first ten minutes, but the cumulative damage from Gaethje’s power shots will eventually take its toll. For those looking at the betting markets, the 'Under 3.5 Rounds' prop is also gaining traction among our experts. Whatever happens, UFC 324 is set to start the year with a bang, proving once again why the lightweight division is the most exciting weight class in mixed martial arts.