Alcaraz Returns and Sabalenka Defends US Open Title as No. 1 Ranking Looms

Carlos Alcaraz enters the US Open title race after missing two majors, while Aryna Sabalenka must win to retain her world No. 1 ranking.

The US Open begins this Sunday in New York with Carlos Alcaraz returning to defend his crown after missing the last two majors due to a wrist injury. Alcaraz holds a combined 7-2 record against potential fourth-round opponents Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul, though he enters the tournament having played zero singles matches since April and no best-of-five-sets matches since January. His biggest rival, Jannik Sinner, is out of the draw. On the women's side, two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka faces losing her No. 1 ranking unless she secures a third consecutive US Open title, having reached only one semifinal and zero finals in her last seven tournaments.

Alcaraz recently competed in mixed doubles alongside Serena Williams, where the duo advanced to the quarterfinals. Observers noted the Spaniard appeared tentative, failing to rip his signature forehand during their opening match. Despite skipping all lead-in events, Alcaraz is the No. 3 seed and occupies a draw where he will not face a top-20 opponent until the fourth round. Experts remain divided on his fitness, noting that wrist injuries typically require a recovery period equal to the time spent away from competition.

Women's Ranking Scenarios and Contenders

Elena Rybakina currently controls her own destiny for the top ranking, as reaching the semifinals would guarantee her the No. 1 spot regardless of other results. However, Rybakina’s status remains uncertain due to an ankle injury that forced her withdrawal from the Cincinnati Open, though she was seen practicing on Thursday. If Rybakina fails to reach the semifinals, Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula could claim the No. 1 ranking by winning the tournament. Gauff enters New York following a title win in Cincinnati, while Sabalenka’s recent form shows declining first-serve and return statistics.

Iga Swiatek, the No. 8 seed and six-time major champion, enters the fortnight having won the 2026 Canadian Open and reaching the Cincinnati semifinals. She has lost only to Jessica Pegula since Wimbledon. Another dark horse, No. 28 seed Sara Bejlek, arrives with a 6-2 record across Toronto and Cincinnati, including victories over Sabalenka, Madison Keys, and Ekaterina Alexandrova. Additionally, Alex Eala has cracked the top 20 after recording nine wins against top-10 opponents over the past year.

American Momentum and Breakthrough Stars

Brandon Nakashima is enjoying a career-high ranking of No. 17 after reaching the Montreal final and Cincinnati semifinals. His summer includes wins over Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, and Rafael Jodar. Nakashima faces a difficult path that could include Andrey Rublev or Marin Cilic in the round of 32, followed by potential matchups against Novak Djokovic, Medvedev, and Alcaraz. Ben Shelton also enters with momentum after winning back-to-back Canada Open titles.

Younger Americans Learner Tien, 20, and Iva Jovic, 18, have both reached a major quarterfinal and won their first tour-level titles since the 2025 US Open. Tien, who lost to Adrian Mannarino in Washington, D.C., is positioned in a section of the draw featuring Felix Auger-Aliassime. In the women's draw, Amanda Anisimova returns as the defending runner-up, while Naomi Osaka looks to build on her Wimbledon performance where she lost to Karolina Muchova. A notable first-round veteran clash features Venus Williams against Sofia Kenin.

Djokovic’s Pursuit of Major Number 25

Novak Djokovic, now 39 years old, seeks a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title despite not winning a match since Wimbledon. His recent form includes a French Open third-round loss to Joao Fonseca and a jarring Cincinnati defeat to Thiago Agustin Tirante, where he complained of health problems in the heat. Djokovic’s path includes a potential second-round match against Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka, with Rublev or Nakashima looming in the fourth round.

To reach the final, Djokovic may have to navigate a quarterfinal against Medvedev or Frances Tiafoe, followed by a semifinal against Alcaraz or Shelton. The opposite side of the draw features Alexander Zverev, Fritz, and Flavio Cobolli. While Djokovic previously defeated Auger-Aliassime in a five-setter at Wimbledon, his physical durability remains a primary concern for the two-week grind in New York's humidity.