NBA Award Races: Gilgeous-Alexander Averages 32 PPG as MVP Frontrunner

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA award races for MVP with 32 PPG, while Victor Wembanyama remains the favorite for DPOY despite missing 14 games.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the 2025-26 NBA award races as the favorite to repeat as Most Valuable Player, averaging 32 points per game on 67% true shooting. His impact on the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder is evidenced by the team scoring 121.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, compared to 110.0 when he sits. This 11.6-point swing mirrors the statistical gap between the top-ranked Denver Nuggets and the 29th-ranked Washington Wizards. Nikola Jokic remains the primary challenger, leading the league with 12.3 rebounds and 10.7 assists per game while chasing single-season records for player efficiency rating and box plus-minus. However, Jokic has already missed 16 games, leaving him with only one more allowable absence to maintain eligibility under the league's 65-game minimum rule.

In the Rookie of the Year race, Cooper Flagg holds the top spot after averaging 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists by the All-Star break. Despite a recent foot sprain, the No. 1 overall pick averaged 32 points per game on 53% shooting over his final six contests before the hiatus. His closest competitor, Kon Knueppel, is averaging 18.9 points per game and making 3.4 three-pointers per contest at a 43% clip. Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama is the heavy favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, recording a league-high 2.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. Wembanyama has missed 14 games and can only sit out three more before losing eligibility for the honor. Chet Holmgren trails him, holding opponents to 47% shooting at the rim for the NBA's top-rated defense.

Eastern Conference Standings and Trade Impacts

The Detroit Pistons entered the All-Star break with the NBA's best winning percentage, positioning J.B. Bickerstaff as the Coach of the Year frontrunner. Detroit sits seven games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who recently acquired James Harden to replace the injured Darius Garland. Cleveland has won 10 of their last 11 games and currently occupies the No. 4 seed in the East, trailing the No. 2 seed by 1.5 games. Donovan Mitchell is producing his most efficient season to date as the Cavaliers prepare for a February 27 matchup against the Pistons on ESPN.

Behind Detroit, the Boston Celtics hold the No. 2 spot despite the absence of Jayson Tatum, who has been sidelined with an Achilles injury suffered in the previous postseason. Jaylen Brown has led the Celtics to the league's second-best offensive rating, averaging 29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. Tatum recently participated in scrimmages with Boston’s G League affiliate, suggesting a return for the April 9 game against the New York Knicks is probable. The Knicks and Celtics are currently separated by only half a game in the standings, making their late-season meeting a potential decider for top-four seeding.

Player Incentives and Salary Guarantees

Zion Williamson’s financial future depends on his availability for the New Orleans Pelicans. Having played 40 games this season, Williamson will trigger a $16,866,604 increase in his salary protection if he appears in Friday’s home game against the Milwaukee Bucks. Under his five-year, $197.2 million extension, his $42.2 million salary for 2026-27 is currently non-guaranteed because he missed more than 22 games during the 2024-25 campaign. To fully guarantee his future earnings, he must meet specific thresholds: $8,433,302 for exceeding 51 games, another $8,433,302 for passing 61 games, and a final $8,433,302 for meeting weight criteria. If he remains on the roster, his salary becomes fully guaranteed on July 15.

LeBron James faces a different financial crossroads with the Los Angeles Lakers. The 41-year-old is earning $52.6 million this season and holds a player option or free agency this summer. While Lakers GM Rob Pelinka expressed a desire for James to retire with the franchise in 2026 or 2027, James has not yet committed to a 24th NBA season. His previous contract included a $2.7 million discount below the maximum salary, but a more significant pay cut would be required this summer to provide the Lakers with roster-building flexibility.

The Race to the Bottom and Lottery Odds

As the postseason picture clarifies, several teams are focused on the May 10 NBA lottery. The Utah Jazz were recently fined $500,000 for manipulating lineups, a move tied to a draft class featuring prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer. Utah’s first-round pick is top-eight protected; if it falls outside that range, it conveys to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Similarly, the Washington Wizards keep their pick only if it remains in the top eight. The Indiana Pacers will lose their selection to the LA Clippers if it lands between Nos. 5 and 9.

The Milwaukee Bucks face significant uncertainty, entering the break at 23-30 and 12th in the Eastern Conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been out since January 23 with a strained right calf and is already ineligible for All-NBA honors after failing to meet the 65-game requirement. Other stars already disqualified from year-end awards include Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Franz Wagner. This marks the end of a record 21-season All-NBA streak for LeBron James, while Antetokounmpo’s run of seven consecutive first-team selections has also concluded. Several other players are on the verge of ineligibility, including Stephen Curry, who can miss only one more game, and Luka Doncic, who has five games of leeway remaining.