Tarik Skubal Enters Free Agency Amid Record Contract Projections

Tarik Skubal is projected to sign a record-breaking contract for a starting pitcher, potentially exceeding $400 million, before the December 1 lockout.

MLB free agency officially begins Monday at 5 p.m. ET, with left-hander Tarik Skubal positioned as the premier player in the 2026 class. Industry insiders expect Skubal to sign a contract before the December 1 lockout, with projections surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto's deal and potentially reaching the $400 million-plus range. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball, are identified as the primary suitors.

Skubal spent the final 2½ months of the 2026 season with the Dodgers, where he reportedly expressed interest in returning to the organization's culture. However, the New York Mets are considered favorites due to a significant need for a top-tier starter and owner Steve Cohen's willingness to meet record-breaking price points. The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres have also expressed interest, though Chicago remains skeptical about competing at the expected $300 million-plus valuation.

Beyond Skubal, several veteran starters are expected to sign short-term deals in November. Michael King, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez, and Tyler Mahle are among those likely to accept offers before the lockout. Martinez enters the market following a postseason performance with the Tampa Bay Rays where he pitched on short rest. Additionally, Rays starter Freddy Peralta and Padres righty Michael King are considered top targets as they cannot receive qualifying offers.

In the trade market, Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen is a primary candidate for a move due to a $20 million salary that would push the Rays' payroll above 2026 levels. The Houston Astros are evaluating shortstop Jeremy Pena one year before he reaches free agency, while the Arizona Diamondbacks could move Ketel Marte if he waives his no-trade clause. The Seattle Mariners are reportedly assessing their pitching surplus to acquire a bat, and the Milwaukee Brewers may listen to offers for closer Trevor Megill.