2026 World Baseball Classic: Team USA Opens as -110 Favorites with Bobby Witt Jr.

The 2026 World Baseball Classic features Team USA as -110 favorites led by Bobby Witt Jr., who enters the tournament with 24.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement.

The 2026 World Baseball Classic begins with Team USA holding -110 title odds and a roster featuring Bobby Witt Jr., who has accumulated 24.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement over the last two seasons. Witt Jr. enters the tournament as a two-time Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner at age 25, trailing only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge in total value. The American squad seeks to improve upon a historical .600 winning percentage, which currently ranks fifth behind Japan, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Korea. Against those four nations plus Mexico and Cuba, the United States has a combined record of 11-13.

Manager Mark DeRosa has named 24-year-old Mets right-hander Nolan McLean as a primary X-factor, scheduling him to start this Tuesday against Italy. McLean is also lined up for a potential championship game appearance following his recovery from vertigo. The U.S. pitching staff features Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Tarik Skubal, though Skubal is limited to one abbreviated start against Great Britain. Joe Ryan is expected to join for the knockout stage if his sore back allows. The bullpen is anchored by closer Mason Miller, supported by depth from Clay Holmes and Matthew Boyd. Aaron Judge, who recently discussed carrying momentum from Olympic hockey into the 2026 World Baseball Classic with Pat McAfee, will hit in the middle of the lineup.

Dominican Republic and Japan Contender Analysis

The Dominican Republic enters Pool D with +400 odds and a lineup led by Juan Soto, who previously went 6-for-15 with five extra-base hits in tournament play. Their rotation is headlined by Cristopher Sanchez, the National League Cy Young runner-up who posted a 2.50 ERA over 202 innings last season. The Dominican staff must compete without Framber Valdez and Freddy Peralta. Success depends on a bullpen where Seranthony Dominguez and Camilo Doval ranked in the bottom nine for walk rate last year. Huascar Brazoban and Wandy Peralta both maintained 9.7% walk rates, while Abner Uribe sat at 9.1%. Historically, the Dominicans went 8-0 to win the 2013 title, including a 3-0 championship victory over Puerto Rico where Samuel Deduno threw five scoreless innings and Robinson Cano earned MVP honors.

Japan carries +350 odds in Pool C, relying on Shohei Ohtani as a designated hitter only. Ohtani previously recorded a 1.345 OPS in the WBC and will not pitch in this edition. The rotation features Sawamura Award winner Hiromi Itoh, who went 14-8 with a 2.52 ERA across 196⅔ innings for the Nippon-Ham Fighters. He is joined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Yusei Kikuchi, though Yu Darvish is out for the season and Roki Sasaki remained in Dodgers camp. Masataka Yoshida, who set a record with 13 RBIs in the 2023 title run, remains on the roster despite playing only seven games in the outfield over the last two years. Tomoyuki Sugano, coming off a 4.64 MLB ERA, is also expected to start.

Venezuela and Mexico Pursuit of the Final

Venezuela holds +900 odds and looks to Ronald Acuna Jr., who hit .290 with 21 home runs and a .935 OPS in 95 games last season. Jackson Chourio joins him after recording 42 homers and 43 steals with a 6.8 fWAR over his first two MLB seasons. With Jose Alvarado unable to secure insurance, Eduard Bazardo and Daniel Palencia will handle late-inning duties. Miguel Cabrera, a veteran of the first five tournaments, has transitioned to hitting coach. Venezuela’s best historical finish was third place in 2009.

Mexico sits at 22-1 odds in Pool B, led by Randy Arozarena, who slashed .450/.607/.900 in the previous tournament. Mexico is 3-1 all-time against the U.S., including an 11-5 victory in 2023 featuring two Joey Meneses home runs and a 2-1 win in 2006 where eight pitchers combined for a three-hitter. The current rotation relies on Taijuan Walker and Javier Assad, as Julio Urias is out due to suspension and Jose Urquidy lacked insurance. Andres Munoz serves as the closer for a unit that includes Alejandro Kirk and Jarren Duran.

Puerto Rico, Korea, and Canada Outlooks

Puerto Rico faces 20-1 odds in Pool A while missing Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez. Heliot Ramos and Nolan Arenado lead a lineup supported by the return of closer Edwin Diaz. Puerto Rico holds a 23-11 all-time WBC record but lost 8-0 to the U.S. in the 2017 final. Korea, at 65-1, features KBO slugger Ahn Hyun-min, who hit 22 home runs with a .334 average last year. Won Tae-in anchors the staff after a 3.24 ERA in 166⅔ innings, joined by 38-year-old Hyun Jin Ryu. Korea has failed to advance past pool play in three consecutive tournaments.

Canada carries 50-1 odds despite the absence of Freddie Freeman. Josh Naylor, who signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Mariners, headlines a lineup with Tyler O'Neill and Bo Naylor. The rotation includes Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, and Cal Quantrill. Italy, at 80-1, features Jac Caglianone, who recently recorded a 120.2 mph exit velocity and a 460-foot home run in spring training. Italy has won at least one game in every WBC but has never defeated a traditional power.