2026 World Baseball Classic: USA Earns 6 Championship Votes to Edge DR and Japan

Thirteen experts analyzed the 2026 World Baseball Classic, selecting the United States as the favorite with six championship votes over the Dominican Republic.

Thirteen baseball experts have finalized their projections for the 2026 World Baseball Classic, with the United States receiving six votes to win the championship. The Dominican Republic followed with five first-place selections, while defending champion Japan secured three votes to repeat. In the championship round, the U.S. was frequently paired against the Dominican Republic and Japan, who each earned three runner-up votes from the panel. Tim Keown, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Kiley McDaniel, Dan Mullen, and Jeff Passan all picked Team USA to hoist the trophy. Conversely, Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez, Matt Marrone, Jesse Rogers, and David Schoenfield backed the Dominican Republic for the title.

Juan Soto of the Dominican Republic emerged as the leading candidate for tournament MVP, garnering three votes. Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge of the United States each received two votes for the honor. Single MVP votes were cast for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Skenes, Seiya Suzuki, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. On the mound, Yamamoto and Skenes tied for the top pitching honors with five votes apiece. Cristopher Sanchez followed with two votes, while Sandy Alcantara and Yusei Kikuchi each received one. Yamamoto enters the tournament following postseason dominance for the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Skenes is recognized as the reigning National League Cy Young winner.

Pool Play Dominance and Unanimous Selections

In Pool B, the United States was a unanimous choice to advance, receiving all 14 winner votes. The roster features high-profile MLB talent including Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., and Paul Skenes. Italy is projected to be a primary challenger in this group, with three experts predicting they will advance to the quarterfinals. The Italian roster features Kansas City Royals teammates Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino. Mexico remains the favorite for the second advancement spot in Pool B, securing 11 votes from the panel.

Pool D also saw a consensus among voters, with the Dominican Republic and Venezuela both receiving 14 votes to advance. The Dominican squad boasts a lineup including Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and pitcher Cristopher Sanchez. Venezuela counters with a core consisting of Ronald Acuna Jr., Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Ranger Suarez. In Pool C, Japan was the unanimous winner with 14 votes, while Korea received 13 votes to move on. A single vote was cast for Australia to advance, fueled by the presence of 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Travis Bazzana.

Quarterfinal Projections and Pool A Tensions

Pool A presents a tighter race between Puerto Rico and Canada. Puerto Rico earned 10 winner votes and 5 additional votes to advance, supported by a roster featuring Nolan Arenado, Edwin Diaz, and Seth Lugo. Canada secured four winner votes and seven votes to advance as the runner-up. Other teams receiving consideration in this group included Colombia and Cuba, which each received one vote to move forward. The pool is rounded out by Panama, though they did not receive advancement votes in this specific expert tally.

Breakout star predictions for the 2026 World Baseball Classic are led by Roman Anthony, Jac Caglianone, Travis Bazzana, and Owen Caissie, who all received two votes each. Caglianone is noted for his dual-threat potential for Italy, while Bazzana represents Australia's highest-profile prospect. Single votes for the breakout category were distributed among Michael Arroyo of Colombia, Denzel Clarke of Canada, Jakob Marsee of Italy, Munetaka Murakami of Japan, and Kim Do-yeong of Korea. Notably, 17-year-old high school ace Joseph Contreras of Brazil was also identified as a potential breakout performer.

Tactical Roster Strengths and Pitching Rotations

The expert consensus highlights three "superteams"—the United States, Dominican Republic, and Japan—as the clear favorites to dominate the bracket. Japan’s pitching staff remains a focal point, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki expected to lead the contingent three years after their 2023 title game victory over the U.S. The American rotation is anchored by Paul Skenes, while the Dominican Republic relies on the depth of Cristopher Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara.

Advancement out of the opening rounds requires navigating a 20-team field that includes Great Britain, Czechia, Israel, and Nicaragua. While the majority of voters expect traditional powerhouses to prevail, the presence of major leaguers on rosters like Italy and Canada creates potential for quarterfinal upsets. The 2026 edition serves as the first tournament since Japan's triumph in the 2023 WBC, maintaining the competitive tension between the world's top-ranked baseball nations.